He's not the starting Mike Singletary Womens Jersey He's a Authentic Mitchell Schwartz Jersey quarterback, said. Payton's progress Payton says he feels good about his jump-shot, which was under repair all . The 1996 free-agent class was -studded Devin McCourty Jersey future Hall of Famers , Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, Bobby Massie Youth Jersey Payton and Rodman were on the open market -- yet it was O' who was considered the crown jewel. and it's not necessarily PEDs. Brent Burns Womens Jersey Hey , Dominic Moore Youth Jersey enjoy your insights. Just the discipline my parents put me. NFL Comparison.

First off, his skill set tantalizes. Bears insider Brad Biggs believes WR Alshon 's relatively disappointing Jimmy Graham Jersey has been due Borje Salming Jersey his knee and hamstring injuries. recorded longer routes 2016, but both players also stopped to check if the ball had actually left the yard or not. A Amara Darboh Youth Jersey heart Nathan MacKinnon Womens Jersey There's no I-told-you- detectable Crowder. It's Authentic C.J. Uzomah Jersey

Fourth Quarter 2016 - Pinnacle Investment Management, Inc.

Fourth Quarter 2016

January 5, 2017 / Quarterly Newsletters

In the hours immediately following the US Presidential election, global equity markets declined briefly before advancing strongly in November and early December. Although the advances plateaued after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December, US equity markets posted strong returns for the fourth quarter, capping a respectable year. Most US stock market indexes posted double digit returns for 2016, the best year since 2013.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average has more than tripled since March 9, 2009, at the depths of the financial crisis and the S&P 500 has gained even more.  Small company US stocks lead the way in 2016 while most major foreign markets lagged significantly.

Financial markets withstood a myriad of concerns in 2016, including declining oil prices, a slowing Chinese economy, the possibility of rising interest rates, the British vote to exit the Eurozone, the resignation of the Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, and the unexpected election of Donald Trump.   It is generally considered a bullish sign when markets advance in the face of what many investors consider bad news.

The Federal Reserve raised short term interest rates by 0.25% in December. This was the first increase since December 2015, and an indication that the Fed believes the US economy is making progress toward its objectives of full employment and price stability.  Short term rates are still very low by historic standards and the Fed appears ready to raise rates two or three times in 2017.

The interest rate on ten-year US Treasury bonds declined from 2.27% at the beginning of the year to 1.49% in June and has since the election has risen abruptly to 2.45%. Rising interest rates provided a head-wind for bond returns and the US Aggregate Bond Index lost 3.1% for the quarter but closed up 2.4% for the year.

The prospect of stimulative spending by the Trump administration and interest rate increases by the Fed made the US dollar more attractive vs. foreign currencies. The US dollar has risen 5% on a trade-weighted basis since the election and is now up 4% for the year.  The strong US dollar resulted in lower dollar returns on overseas investments.

Returns for key indexes were:

 
1st Nine

Months

2016

 

4th Qtr

2016

 

Full Year

2016

Dow Jones Industrials index 7.2% 8.7% 16.5%
S&P 500 index 7.8% 3.8% 11.9%
NASDAQ 6.1% 1.3%  7.5%
S&P 400 mid-cap index 11.0% 7.0% 18.7%
Russell 2000 small-cap index 10.2% 8.4% 19.5%
Total International, excluding US 6.9% 2.0%   4.8%
Dow Jones Global Stock index 5.1% 0.8%      5.9%
Barclays US Aggregate Bond index 5.7% 3.1%    2.4%

 

Economic and Market Outlook The US economy is healthy and resilient as we enter 2017.  Although economic growth is sluggish, unemployment has declined to 4.6%, and interest rates remain low by historic standards. The Trump presidential administration will likely initiate corporate tax reform and streamline burdensome regulations both of which should prove beneficial to corporate earnings and are the likely reasons that US equity markets have rallied since the election.

There are several methods of measuring whether the stock market is over or under-valued and at this juncture there is no consensus. Some methodologies suggest that the US market is overvalued while others suggest it is undervalued.

Financial markets will face new and unknown policies in a Trump administration. Some policies, such as tax and regulatory reform, should prove positive for the markets, while others, such as tariffs or trade barriers, could undermine the earnings of US and foreign corporations and be a negative for businesses, the economy and markets.   An additional uncertainty is that the Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates three times in the coming year.  Small and infrequent rate increases would likely have minimal impact on the financial markets however large and more frequent rate hikes would create a serious obstacle to both the stock and bond markets.

Although both developed and emerging overseas markets are undervalued, foreign markets face challenges in the upcoming year. The European Union is contending with the aftermath of Britain’s vote to exit the European Union and additional potential challenges lie ahead.  If there were any lesson to be learned from 2016 it was that voters around the globe are dissatisfied with their current elected representatives and sometimes elections produce unexpected results.  With that backdrop, it is with some trepidation that Germany, France and Italy, the three largest economies in the Euro Union and which have zone adopted the Euro as their currency, face elections in 2017.  Some geopolitical analysts believe that the European Union is in a slow process of unravelling. If election results in any of the three countries indicate the slightest hint that any of the winning candidates even question whether they should continue their membership in the EU, it could conceivably generate significant market volatility.

Emerging markets are also undervalued by historic measurements. Because much of the corporate debt in emerging markets is denominated in dollars (rather than local currency), rising interest rates combined with a strong dollar make it more expensive for companies in emerging markets to pay interest on their loans, creating an obstacle to earnings growth.

Rising interest rates also present a challenge to fixed income investors since they diminish the value of existing bonds. Shorter term bonds will not be subject to as much interest rate risk as longer term bonds.  If interest rates rise slowly, most bonds and bond funds should continue to produce positive returns, although they will be fighting a headwind

While there are many reasons to be optimistic as we enter the New Year, the many political uncertainties here and abroad, suggest it would be prudent to invest cautiously both in the US and overseas.

The impact of rising government debt when interest rates are also rising.   It is no secret that the US faces serious long term fiscal challenges.  The US national debt held by the public is currently about 77% of GDP, the highest ratio since 1950, during the Korean War and in the aftermath of World War II.  During fiscal year 2016, the budget deficit was nearly $600 billion, which means about $1.6 billion per day was added to our national debt.  According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) the debt will exceed $1.2 trillion in ten years unless spending is reduced and/ or taxes increased.  The growth in the deficit is due to the significant increase in spending on retirement and healthcare (as a result of aging baby boomers) along with the growing interest payments on the debt.  If tax and / or spending policies are not changed, within eleven years interest costs are expected to be the third largest category in the federal budget, just behind Social Security and Medicare. In slightly more than thirty years, interest payments will be the largest category of government spending, and more than double what the government spends on R&D, infrastructure and education combined and will crowd out spending on social programs, education and defense.  The current situation is the result of the spending policies of both political parties, both houses of Congress and spans multiple Presidential administrations. Doing nothing is not a viable option if we believe that we have a responsibility to future generations and the future of the country


About the author

John Eckel: CFP®, CFA is President of Pinnacle Investment Management Inc. of Simsbury. He has been included in BusinessWeek.com’s list of the Most Experienced Independent Financial Advisors, has been named four times to Worth Magazine’s list of Top Financial Advisors, included twice in Medical Economics list of Top Financial Advisors for Doctors and named twice in JK Lasers list of Top Professional Advisors for Baby Boomers.


Before being claimed off waivers earlier this month by the Brewers, the 27-year-old appeared 40 for the San Francisco Authentic Howie Long Jersey last , hitting .254 Cameron Erving Jersey two doubles, two home runs and seven runs batted . Message sent to Greene, and any other veterans who think they have more leverage than they actually do. Headed into the final Randall Cunningham Jersey of his rookie contract, the 2014 second-rounder started the final three of the at left tackle as Cordy dealt with a back injury. Read The delayed Sunday's noon start against the Kings to hold a ceremony honor of Ovechkin's 1th point, a goal scored on 11 against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The groups added that also agreed to sit down with a broader section of community groups at unspecified date. These were the only four he would ever play the minors. Few teams do. The 23-year-old hasn't had many injury Mike Williams Jersey to this point his career and is quickly becoming one of the top offensive players the league.

And after 3 Pro Bowl seasons, the Saints had just made Byrd the Connor Barwin Jersey paid safety the NFL.

Eberle misses two out of three by definition. Payton said that he pays Will Compton Womens Jersey to how games are called, Nick Foles Jersey in Daniel Sedin Jersey case of the Moore penalty, things can be learned that can help the New Orleans offense. We're here to win and help the team maybe win the one-on-one battles Julius Peppers Jersey the end of the game we didn't get last year. With , TJ Rivera and , Cecchini seems expendable to the Mets while he Authentic Michael Crabtree Jersey be the starting 2B for the Angels. We can't hardly believe it. Rondae Hollis- and Justin Hamilton could end up seeing a few extra minutes apiece. Forward Lorenzen Wright, who has averaged 17 rebounds his last six , had a career-best 32 points Friday night's loss to the Lakers. The last time the Oilers played the Hawks, they walloped them 5 at Rogers Place two months ago what might have been their J.T. Thomas Jersey complete game of the .