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The Most Recent Market Update

 

  • October 2018

    Market volatility has returned and the equity markets sold-off significantly in October. However, the volatility we’re experiencing is not entirely unusual and is well within what investors should expect based on market history.  Despite the October sell-off, the US S& P 500 Index is about where it began the year even though it’s down significantly in October.  International investments have not fared as well and are down more than 10% since the beginning of the year.   This market volatility underscores the importance of investing in a broadly diversified portfolio, including short-term, high quality bonds.

    Why is the market declining?  The recent sell-off is largely driven by tariffs, rising rates, slowing earnings growth, and high relative valuations for certain stocks and sectors especially technology.  While October has not always been a good month for the market, October has historically been an average month for stock returns, having returned +0.53% versus a monthly average of +0.62% for all months.

    Elections, debt, and deficits do matter.  The federal deficit for 2018 will add over $800 billion to an already $20 trillion in outstanding US federal debt.  Rising debt, and the interest payments on that debt, will put downward pressure on long-term economic growth and put upward pressure on taxes.  Current federal expenditures such as entitlement programs and defense spending will come under pressure as a greater percentage of the federal budget is allocated to making interest payments on outstanding debt.  With respect to elections, some argue that the market is volatile in light of the prospect of the Democrats taking over the House.  Maybe, but markets are mechanisms for pricing in lots of information, and a particular election outcome is just one of millions of data points markets attempt to reflect in prices.  The more important outcome is how well our elected officials, regardless of party affiliation, address the difficult economic issues facing the country-rising debt, chronic deficits, entitlement and regulatory reform, tariffs, rising interest rates, inflation, and education (which impacts worker productivity) to name only a few.

    When market volatility increases as it has recently, it is often helpful to stand back and look at the big picture. When we do, this is our view:

     

    • The US economy grew at a solid 3.5% rate in the third quarter. While that growth may slow in the future, it is not likely to “fall off the cliff”. We are not facing a 2008-9 financial crisis when liquidity dried up and major financial institutions and industrial firms were unable to borrow to meet their obligations.
    • The goals of the news media are to increase their readership and viewership – not necessarily to get you better returns. They know bad news sells and have shown they are prone to make mountains out of molehills. Turn off the TV and your financial life will be less stressful and you will be less likely to make a decision that you may regret later.
    • The stock market is like an incredibly persistent prize fighter who may be knocked down but has always bounced back. The only times investors lose is when they sell after a market drop.
    • Bonds are much less volatile than stocks and almost every portfolio we manage has a reasonable allocation to bonds. If you are withdrawing money from your portfolio you likely have several years of withdrawals that could be taken from bonds, providing stocks time to recover.
    • If we have prepared a financial plan for you, that plan included allowances for a healthy dose of volatility. It also allows for even more volatility than we have seen in 2018

    We believe this is normal market volatility. If in fact this turns into a bear market with a decline of 20% or more we will rebalance portfolios to take advantage of stocks that have gone “on sale”. It would also be a good time to add additional funds in the expectation that once again the prize fighter will rise from the canvas and come on strong.

    Continue reading →

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