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The Most Recent Market Update

 

  • February 2018

    The financial markets are already having a more interesting year than they had in 2017.

     

    The S&P 500 gained more than 5% in January, recording the 11th best January gain since 1950.  Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained 4% or more 20 times in the first month of the year. On 19 of those occasions it posted double digit gains for the entire year.

     

    Last week a strong Labor Report ignited inflation fears and pushed bond yields higher, and the interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 2.85% the highest since January 2014.

     

    As a result of rising interest rates the stock market suffered a significant decline last week, yet it is still up over 3% this year.

     

    Rising interest rates pushed bond prices down and will result in bond investors receiving higher interest rates in the future.

     

    The two-year Treasury yield recently surpassed the S&P 500 dividend yield for the first time in over ten years. If that gap widens, it will make bonds more attractive vis a vis stocks.

     

    While rising interest rates can be problematic for both the stock and bond markets, the economic environment remains positive. Companies are predicting solid growth in sales and earnings, which is positive for the stock market. There is no sign of a recession on the horizon, which is one thing which could cause a bear market.

     

    In spite of the positive earnings outlook, it is reasonable to expect that volatility will increase from the very low level we saw last year, and also reasonable to anticipate a temporary decline of more than 10% this year.

     

    If we do see a market decline of more than 10%, it will likely represent a buying opportunity.

     

    We would be happy to answer any questions you may have regarding the financial markets, your investments, or other items which may impact your financial situation.

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